🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.